The world’s economies are rapidly changing due to the rapid development of new markets and the rapid growth of new technologies, sustainable policies, and shifting consumers’ preferences regarding ownership. The rise of automation, digitization and the development of new business models have transformed other sectors, and automotive is no exception. These forces are leading to four radically disruptive technological trends within the automotive sector including autonomous mobility, diverse mobility driving, electrification and connectivity.
The majority of industry experts and players believe that the four trends will strengthen and speed up the pace of each other and that the auto sector is primed for disruption. In light of the fact that disruptive disruptions are already at hand however, there is no holistic view on how the industry will change in the next 10 to 15 years following the impact of these developments. In this regard the eight perspectives we offer concerning”2030″ and the “2030 automotive revolution” are designed to provide scenarios regarding the kind of changes that are in the pipeline and how they’ll impact traditional automotive producers and suppliers, new players regulators, consumers marketplaces, as well as entire automotive value chain.
This research aims to make the changes that are coming more concrete. The forecasts must be taken as projections of the most likely assumptions for all four of the trends, based upon our current knowledge. They’re definitely not certain however they can assist industry leaders in preparing for the uncertainties by discussing the possible future state.
- Inspiring by sharing connectivity, mobility services and feature enhancements The new business models will increase the amount of revenue from cars by around 30 percent, which could amount the amount to $1.5 trillion.
The market for automotive revenues will dramatically increase and expand towards on-demand mobility services as well as data-driven service. It could result in $1.5 trillion (or 30% more) in future revenue as compared to $5.2 trillion in traditional car sales and other aftermarket products or services increasing by 50 percent from $3.5 trillion in 2015. (Exhibit 1.).
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Connectivity, and eventually autonomous technology, will eventually enable the car to be an opportunity for passengers and drivers to make use of their time on the road to enjoy new forms of services and media or to dedicate their time to other activities. The speed of change particularly in systems that are software-based will demand that cars be upgraded. As shared mobility solutions that have shorter lifespans will be more prevalent, customers are constantly alert to technological advancements which will also drive the need for upgrading for privately owned vehicles and other vehicles.
- Despite the shift towards shared mobility, the number of vehicle units will continue to rise however, probably at a slower pace of 2 percent annually.
Globally, car sales will continue to increase however the rate of annual growth is predicted to decrease from 3.6 percent that was seen over the past five years to about 2 percent in 2030. The drop is largely due to macroeconomic factors and the growth of new mobility options like car sharing and the e-hailing.
A thorough analysis suggests that regions with a substantial existing automobile base can be a great place for these services. A lot of cities and towns in Europe along with North America fit this profile. The new mobility services could lead to a decrease in private-vehicle sales. However, this decrease is likely to be offset by a rise in share-vehicle sales that require replacement more often because of higher use and wear and wear and tear.
The main driver for growth in global sales of cars is the macroeconomic overall positive growth, which includes the expansion of the middle class. The established markets are slowing down development, it is expected that growth will depend heavily on the emerging economy, especially China as well as product-mix variations that could be the reason for a different pattern of revenue.
- Changes in the way consumers use mobility are happening and could result in up to one in ten vehicles sold by 2030 becoming a shared car and the subsequent growth of a market for appropriate mobility solutions.
Changes in consumer preferences, tightening regulation, and technological advances all contribute to a major change in the way people travel. People are increasingly using different modes of transportation to travel while products and services are being delivered to instead of being purchased by customers. In the end, the traditional model of selling cars is being complemented with a wide range of mobility options, available on demand particularly in dense urban areas that actively restrict private-car usage.
Today, consumers use their vehicles for all-purpose use for all sorts of purposes, whether it’s driving to work on their own or taking their entire group to a beach. In the near future they could require the freedom to select the best option to meet a particular need in the moment, and through their mobile phones. Already, we can see signs that the value of private-car ownership is decreasing: in the United States, for example the percentage of teenagers (16 to 24 years old) with an driver’s license fell from 76% in 2000 to 71 % in 2013. Meanwhile, there was more than 30 percent growth annually in car-sharing users throughout North America and Germany over the past five years.
The trend of customers employing customized solutions for each reason will create new categories of vehicles that are specifically designed to meet requirements. For instance, the market for a car designed specifically for e-hailing, that is, an automobile designed for maximum usage, reliability, additional range of travel, and comfort for passengers–will already be a million units in the present and this is only the beginning.
Due to this shift to more diverse mobility options, as much as one-tenth of new vehicles sold by 2030 is likely to be a shared vehicle which could result in a decline in the sales of private-use vehicles. This could mean that over 30 percent of the miles travelled in new cars could come from sharing mobility. Based on this scenario, one of three vehicles that are sold could be shared vehicles as early as 2050.
- City type is set to replace region or country as the most significant segmentation factor that affects the behavior of mobility and, consequently the pace and extent of the car revolution.
Knowing where the future business opportunities are, will require a deeper understanding of the market for mobility like never. Particularly, it is essential to categorize these markets according to the types of cities, based on their populations density, economic growth and economic growth. Within these segments, consumer preferences, policies and regulations as well as the accessibility and cost of new business models will drastically diverge. In megacities like London such as London cars are already becoming a burden for a large number of due to congestion fees as well as a lack of parking and traffic congestion etc. However, in rural areas, such as in the US state in Iowa within the United States, private-car usage remains the preferred mode of transportation by far.
The kind of city will therefore become the primary indicator of mobility and will replace the regional approach to the market for mobility. In 2030, the automobile marketplace in New York will likely have many more similarities with Shanghai’s market Shanghai than that of Kansas.
- If the issues of technology and regulation are resolved After that, as high as 15 percent of the new cars that are sold by 2030 could be completely autonomous.
Fully autonomous vehicles are not likely to become commercially available prior to 2020. In the meantime, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) will be a key factor in preparing consumers, regulators as well as corporations for the long-term realities of autonomous cars taking the control of drivers.
The introduction to the market of ADAS has revealed that the main obstacles to the speed of market adoption are pricing as well as consumer awareness and security/safety issues. Concerning the technological capabilities startup companies and tech players will be a major factor in the creation for autonomous cars. Regulations and the acceptance of consumers may be additional obstacles to autonomous vehicle development. But, once these issues are resolved autonomous vehicles will provide immense value to consumers (for instance, the possibility to work from home while on the road or the convenience of using social media, or watching movies while travelling).
A more advanced scenario could have fully autonomous vehicles with about 15 percent of all passenger vehicles sold in 2030.