A bike ride is idyllic on a country road but not so much on a busy city street. Both traditional bicycles as well as the electric models, which are becoming increasingly popular, fall under this category. Urban residents and city leaders are increasingly advocating for bike-friendly cities with designated travel lanes and safer roads. The efforts of these groups have led to an increase in the use of bicycles, and this interest continues to grow. Copenhagen residents own 750,000 bicycles, five times as many cars.
There are still questions about the impact of increased bicycle use in urban areas on transportation infrastructure, commute times, and the environment. We created a scenario where residents of a typical Western European town drastically reduced their use of private vehicles in favor of electric or traditional bicycles. We also looked at the impact of a shift on a city’s economy and environmental health. This analysis is based on the shift from private cars to bicycles. However, cities can reap similar benefits by encouraging residents to use other micromobility modes, such as e-kickscooters and mopeds. Only the magnitude of the effect would differ, as some modes of micromobility produce more gains than others.
Imagine a city in Europe that is now heavily dependent on cars.
Image of a hypothetical city, with cars, buses, and trucks driving down streets in front of towering buildings.
Our analysis covers a metropolitan area with a population of approximately 1.1 million. The city itself is about 370 km 2. About 71 percent (or a total of 370 km) of passenger kilometers are driven by private cars. The use of all forms of micromobility (Exhibit 1) is relatively low. About 520,000 personal vehicles are in the car park.
Exhibit 1.
Our website is accessible to all users. We will work with you if you need more information on this content. Please get in touch with us by email at McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com.
Bicycles are gaining in popularity.
This analysis looked at what would happen if residents in the metropolitan area traveled 22.5 percent more kilometers by bicycle than they do now. This estimate is not random, as car owners who participated in McKinsey’s global 2022 ACES survey said they could replace 22.5% of their private car miles with micromobility, including bicycles, e-kickscooters, and mopeds (Exhibit 2). Bicycles are currently the most popular micromobility mode, and this is likely to remain the case. It’s unlikely that ACES respondents (autonomous vehicles, connected cars, and electric vehicles) would switch to bicycles. For example, some may have physical limitations which prevent cycling. However, our analysis gives us clues as to the environmental, economic, and mobility benefits that can be gained if micromobility gains ground.
Exhibit 2.
We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. If you would like information about this content, we will be happy to work with you. Please email us at McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com.
Our website is accessible to all users. We will work with you if you need more information on this content. Please get in touch with us by email at McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com.
Every city wants the benefits depicted in our scenario, but achieving them will take decisive efforts, such as building mobility hubs where people can rent bikes and easily shift to public transit. Since a 22.5 percent shift solely to bike travel is implausible, cities must also think about other essential changes that promote the use of different types of micromobility, including the creation of charging spots for e-kickscooters. Regulations could also help, including the imposition of congestion charges to discourage traffic, the creation of no-driving zones, and laws forbidding on-street parking. Most importantly, urban leaders must also increase safety for micromobility to gain ground since our analysis suggests that road fatalities would double—going from about 20 to 42—in the average European city if traditional and electric bicycle usage increases to the extent depicted in our scenario. The potential benefits of micromobility justify such measures and also provide urban leaders with an incentive to help residents who want to make the shift.
About the Author(s)
Yasemin Barak is a McKinsey consultant at the Frankfurt office. Kersten Heineke, a partner in McKinsey Frankfurt and Benedikt kloss, an associate partner in McKinsey Frankfurt. Darius Scurtu works in McKinsey Munich.
